Thursday, October 16, 2008
Swan Song
I wonder how much the course of Western Philosophy has been shaped by the discovery of Black Swans.
Midget Porn?
This is not, strictly speaking, the most disturbing thing I've ever seen... La Pequeña Sarah Palin
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
This Should Make Their Brains Explode
Barry Goldwater, Mr. Conservative, arranged for his daughter to have an illegal abortion.
What happens when we win?
After the rout.
I agree with all of Chris's predictions to varying degrees. It really is pretty hard to predict what the Democratic Party will do, since their tactic over the past 2 years has been to hunker down and wait out the Bush Presidency, since he'll veto anything fun anyway.
In addition to the normal three axes in American politics (Economic, Foreign, Social), there's a fourth axis that could be described as Partisanship. For example, although Rahmbo is fairly conservative on most things, he's a hyper partisan and will always be first in line to try to fuck the Republicans. On the other hand, you've got a fair number of progressives like Kucinich who seem to enjoy telling Hoyer to get bent. So, once the Democrats have such a huge majority, and a President who will sign their bills, there'll be a wild and wacky period of inter-party alignment. My suspicion is that it'll end up being a fairly liberal working majority that ignores social issues and occasionally throws a piece of meat to corporate America. So: Yes on Universal Health Care, No on repealing DOMA.
Figuring out what the Republicans are going to do is easy. They'll probably fire Boehner, but even if they don't, they'll retreat to "Fuck you, that's why!" mode for the entirety of the Obama presidency. The House Republicans left standing after November will be the ones who are untouchable. If their districts are so conservative that they survive this election, then the only way they'll lose their seats is with a primary challenge from the right. And with such a large Democratic Majority (it's already larger than anything the Republicans managed from 1994-2006), they won't see any feasible way back into the majority. That means they have every incentive to screw with the Democrats, and none to work with them.
Which means the Democrats will be passing legislation by themselves, which is another reason they'll factionalize. Let's say we pick up 25 seats in the election. That'll make it 260 Dems to 175 GOP. That's an 85 seat advantage. But here's where they get bitchy. The GOP just decides that it's going to vote no on everything. Since all of their members are safe, and most of them are assholes, that bloc will hold.
So now you've got 260 Democratic Congressmen, of which 218 are needed to pass anything. Or, to put it the other way, only 43 Democratic congressmen need to be bought off by corporate lobbyists in order to stymie the progressive agenda. That's frighteningly possible, and the main reason why Kos has already made plans to wage a Jyhad against bad Democrats in 2010.
I agree with all of Chris's predictions to varying degrees. It really is pretty hard to predict what the Democratic Party will do, since their tactic over the past 2 years has been to hunker down and wait out the Bush Presidency, since he'll veto anything fun anyway.
In addition to the normal three axes in American politics (Economic, Foreign, Social), there's a fourth axis that could be described as Partisanship. For example, although Rahmbo is fairly conservative on most things, he's a hyper partisan and will always be first in line to try to fuck the Republicans. On the other hand, you've got a fair number of progressives like Kucinich who seem to enjoy telling Hoyer to get bent. So, once the Democrats have such a huge majority, and a President who will sign their bills, there'll be a wild and wacky period of inter-party alignment. My suspicion is that it'll end up being a fairly liberal working majority that ignores social issues and occasionally throws a piece of meat to corporate America. So: Yes on Universal Health Care, No on repealing DOMA.
Figuring out what the Republicans are going to do is easy. They'll probably fire Boehner, but even if they don't, they'll retreat to "Fuck you, that's why!" mode for the entirety of the Obama presidency. The House Republicans left standing after November will be the ones who are untouchable. If their districts are so conservative that they survive this election, then the only way they'll lose their seats is with a primary challenge from the right. And with such a large Democratic Majority (it's already larger than anything the Republicans managed from 1994-2006), they won't see any feasible way back into the majority. That means they have every incentive to screw with the Democrats, and none to work with them.
Which means the Democrats will be passing legislation by themselves, which is another reason they'll factionalize. Let's say we pick up 25 seats in the election. That'll make it 260 Dems to 175 GOP. That's an 85 seat advantage. But here's where they get bitchy. The GOP just decides that it's going to vote no on everything. Since all of their members are safe, and most of them are assholes, that bloc will hold.
So now you've got 260 Democratic Congressmen, of which 218 are needed to pass anything. Or, to put it the other way, only 43 Democratic congressmen need to be bought off by corporate lobbyists in order to stymie the progressive agenda. That's frighteningly possible, and the main reason why Kos has already made plans to wage a Jyhad against bad Democrats in 2010.
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Fucked Fucked Fuckity Fucked
Nouriel Roubini, the man who's been right about everything so far, says you're even more fucked than you realize.
Actually LOL
This, my friends, is the funniest chat log in human history.
Byron York, renowned conservative hack, chatting with Matt Taibbi.
I've been sort of amazed throughout this entire financial crisis — conservatives have literally no idea what's going on, so it's unusually difficult for them to come up with a sensible sounding lies about the situation. Conservative responses aren't wrong, they're just nonsense, literally nonsensical. It's impossible to discuss things with people when they just don't understand something and refuse to admit it.
I suppose this is true about a number of things (most notably global warming and evolution), but in those areas conservatives have had decades to conjure up sophisticated bullshit that at least makes it seem like they know what they're talking about.
Byron York, renowned conservative hack, chatting with Matt Taibbi.
I've been sort of amazed throughout this entire financial crisis — conservatives have literally no idea what's going on, so it's unusually difficult for them to come up with a sensible sounding lies about the situation. Conservative responses aren't wrong, they're just nonsense, literally nonsensical. It's impossible to discuss things with people when they just don't understand something and refuse to admit it.
I suppose this is true about a number of things (most notably global warming and evolution), but in those areas conservatives have had decades to conjure up sophisticated bullshit that at least makes it seem like they know what they're talking about.
Da Sexy Times
Discussing our electoral prospects next month, someone recently asked me if we had any problem spots. I replied that we're probably going to lose a few house seats that we shouldn't have won last time, even though we're going to pick up seats over all.
I used as an example Mark Foley, whose house seat we never would've taken if he hadn't been fucking little boys. Oh, look.
I used as an example Mark Foley, whose house seat we never would've taken if he hadn't been fucking little boys. Oh, look.
Saturday, October 11, 2008
Landslide watch
I just heard through the grapevine, that my racist grandfather, who hasn't voted for a Democrat since Truman, is planning on voting for Obama.
There are other factors, but I think this illustrates the sheer stupidity of the Palin pick. The Edwards voters in Kentucky and West Virginia (long after he exited the race, and in a democratic primary election) should've pointed out that the bigot vote doesn't like African Americans or Women. By picking Palin, McCain really neutralized his natural demographic advantage with those voters.
There are other factors, but I think this illustrates the sheer stupidity of the Palin pick. The Edwards voters in Kentucky and West Virginia (long after he exited the race, and in a democratic primary election) should've pointed out that the bigot vote doesn't like African Americans or Women. By picking Palin, McCain really neutralized his natural demographic advantage with those voters.
Thursday, October 09, 2008
Dean Reynolds
What a gigantic crybaby.
I just finished read The Boys on the Bus, which is a pretty vicious account of the press corp. during the 1976 campaign. If anything, it appears that things have gotten worse.
I just finished read The Boys on the Bus, which is a pretty vicious account of the press corp. during the 1976 campaign. If anything, it appears that things have gotten worse.
Wednesday, October 08, 2008
It's Over
We're going to win this election. It won't even be close. Obama's field organization is so good that we'll probably win every state currently within the margin of error.
Today is the last day to register to vote in Missouri, and we've already registered more voters in this state than the margin between Bush and Kerry in 2004. And the polls have us beating McCain among voters who voted in 2004. We're going to win Missouri.
I would invite you all to start thinking along the same lines at Tim Noah.
Today is the last day to register to vote in Missouri, and we've already registered more voters in this state than the margin between Bush and Kerry in 2004. And the polls have us beating McCain among voters who voted in 2004. We're going to win Missouri.
I would invite you all to start thinking along the same lines at Tim Noah.
Monday, October 06, 2008
Kick Ass
I've long argued that political reform in this country is made a lot easier by the fact that the world currently has a bunch of fairly well functioning Democracies. Instead of theorizing about political systems, like the 76ers did, we can simply observe other political systems and pick and choose what works best.
With that in mind, I heartily endorse South Korea's decision making process.
With that in mind, I heartily endorse South Korea's decision making process.
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