Saturday, June 14, 2008

GREAT QUOTES IN POLITICAL HISTORY: Southern Governor Edition

"The only way I can lose this election is if I'm caught in bed with either a dead girl or a live boy"

— Edwin Edwards, running for a third term as Louisiana's Governor in 1983; he won.

Russert

I know some pretty awful people. First, moments after Tim Russert's death, my father sends me an e-mail saying "Well, this proves Hillary definitely has a 'hit-list'".

And then my friend Steve sends me this screen shot from MSN.

All I can say is, election coverage is going to be a lot better this year.

Friday, June 13, 2008

GREAT QUOTES IN POLITICAL HISTORY: Revolutionary Edition

Let them call me rebel and welcome, I feel no concern from it; but I should suffer the misery of devils, were I to make a whore of my soul by swearing allegiance to one whose character is that of a sottish, stupid, stubborn, worthless, brutish man. I conceive likewise a horrid idea in receiving mercy from a being, who at the last day shall be shrieking to the rocks and mountains to cover him, and fleeing with terror from the orphan, the widow, and the slain of America.

— Thomas Paine,The Crisis , 1776; now that is coursening the discourse.

I was right

Wherein, Josh Marshall admits that everything I said about the long primary helping Obama was true.

Biggest Upset in History?

There's a question floating around the internets about whether or not Obama's victory over Clinton is the biggest political upset in American history. Commentators who say that it is not often point to 1948's Dewey Defeats Truman. I'm not sure how one can possibly judge "bigger" or "smaller" upsets on such a timescale (after all, how accurate are our perceptions of historical contests?), but I would draw your attention to the Democratic Convention of 1896, when William Jennings Bryan stole the nomination from incumbent President Grover Cleveland.

Why Hillary Lost

None of the Clinton Campaign Postmortems in the media have mentioned the two crucial reasons Hillary Clinton lost the Democratic nomination. Sure, they should have paid attention to the caucuses. And ignoring everything after February 5th was a mistake. I probably wouldn't have relied so much on a corporate shark like Mark Penn. Sexism, while not a problem at the voting booth, may have tainted media coverage. Bill might have chosen his words more carefully a couple of times. She should have focused on Obama in the beginning instead of Edwards. She should have run for something, as opposed to just a Clinton Restoration. Any of the reasons that people have mentioned might have influenced the election in minor ways, and she would have fared far worse without her enormous starting advantages. But there were two crucial reasons she lost, the first has been talked about on blogs but hardly anywhere else, and the second is barely mentioned at all (except, for perhaps, a read-between-the-lines interpretation of Kerrey's op-ed).

1. SHE VOTED FOR THE GODDAMN WAR.

Not only did she vote for the war, but she supported the war in the most transparently political ways possible. And then, during the course of the primary, she repeatedly lied about that vote. And then she went and voted for Kyl-Lieberman, which many activists interpreted as a vote to go to war with Iran (it wasn't, but it was needless saber-rattling that showed she'd had no conversion on topics of war and peace). A better candidate could have finessed the issue better, like John Edwards did with his public mea culpa (I Was Wrong) after the 2004 election. Which leads us to...

2. SHE WAS A BAD CANDIDATE.

Despite Clinton's ridiculous "experience" argument, Hillary was actually the least qualified person seeking the Democratic nomination this year, with a mere 8 years in government (Obama, by contrast, won his first election in 1996). She'd never run a race against a real opponent, and she'd never lost a race.* The primary field for the 2000 Senate race was cleared for her, she beat a token right-wing congressman, and didn't even have an opponent for re-election in 2006.

An early clue to her vulnerability is the election results in 2000. Despite the fact that Gore didn't even bother to campaign in New York, she ran 5 points lower than him. Think about that. Of people voting in New York that year, with Hillary campaigning non-stop, she scored 5 points less than "Generic Democrat". And so, despite the fact that she started out with a huge lead in money, and a huge lead in the polls, she just wasn't a good enough campaigner to pull off as close to a sure thing as there is in politics.

And if people have an emotional need to blame the campaign instead of the candidate, well, I'm sorry, but The Cossacks Work for the Czar. Clinton's campaign wasn't as good as Obama's, or BushCo's 2000 and 2004 efforts, but it was pretty good (it was basically an upgraded version of Clinton 1996); she certainly had a better campaign than any of the Republicans this year. And the litany of mistakes, poor judgment, bad advice taken, and personnel infighting can all be traced back to a bad management style at the top.


*This is an often-ignored fact. People who've never lost aren't prepared for and don't know how to react to a loss. This was a bigger problem for Dean in 2004 (after Iowa) than it was for Clinton, but it was still a problem for her.

Generational Partisan ID

Nice charts: Generation Dem

I predict that years from now, pundits will talk about "The Obama Generation" in conjunction with the Millennials, and discuss how he brought them into the Democratic fold. This will be hogwash. We were already trending heavily Democratic, and Obama will just be the first Democratic President to capitalize on this. Obama didn't find us, in a very real sense, we chose him.

(Also note that while young whites are trending more Democratic than in the past, a healthy chunk of this trend can be explained by the fact that the Millennials are also the least white generation in American history.)

Thursday, June 12, 2008

GREAT QUOTES IN POLITICAL HISTORY: Dean Edition

I want my country back!

I don't want to listen to fundamentalist preachers anymore!


— Howard Dean, March 16, 2003; presumably courting the crucial white evangelical vote.

Programming Note

Light posting today, as I worked on a new feature for the blog. Now, every day at midnight, a political quote, chosen by ME for YOU will pop up on the blog.

PI: New Content Every Day, Even When I'm Hungover

"Natural Born Citizen"

Apparently, the stupid required Kos to get a copy of Obama's birth certificate. But now that the stupids brought it up, can we spend a news cycle or two discussing the fact that McCain wasn't born on U.S. soil?

"Baby Mama"

Hey, look: Racism!

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

The Polls are behaving as they should.

That's a nice trendline beginning to emerge there: Pollster.com.

Once Obama's number tops 50%, the contest is basically over. It is at this point that the right-wing realizes that McCain is toast. And then the knives come out.

If you are any sort of conservative, it is vitally important that McCain lose because he lost your support. That will give you a leg up on the post-election GOP intra-party fighting. The only GOP group with any allegiance to McCain are the NeoCons, and those treacherous motherfuckers will probably dump him too.

Schlock

Elections during the 19th century tended to be very active affairs — without televised sports, elections were the national pastime. Modern pundits who demand "seriousness" from candidates and campaigns are boring jackasses, people who relish the silliness, by contrast, are traditionalists.

It is with this preamble that I introduce you to Jones Soda Co's Yes We Can Cola.

Obama's bad idea

Obama's advocacy of a Windfall Profits Tax, while not quite as stupid as a "Gas Tax Holiday", is pretty dumb. In fact, it probably ranks as his worst idea this year. It really is just a mildly inefficient way to mandate that oil companies obscure their true profits and decrease domestic production.

When conservative capitalist ideologues argue that any increase in the marginal tax rate for wealthy individuals will result in those individuals rationally decreasing their economic output, they're full of shit. People don't work that way. Corporations, being the soulless golems that they are, do.

For similar reasons, we should probably get rid of the corporate income tax and replace it with higher taxes on individuals and capital gains.

McCaskill?

Cross her off the list:
Obama hangs out in StL without me: "While lauding her as 'such a terrific advocate on my behalf,' Obama sought to tamp down any speculation that McCaskill — a first-term senator like himself — might be chosen as his running mate or for a possible Cabinet post if he's elected.

'My sense is that Claire really enjoys being the senator of Missouri. We haven't had any discussion about other roles,' Obama said."
That seems pretty definitive to me. If he were seriously considering her, he would have at least said "maybe" when in her home town.

Fun Fact: One of my many right-wing uncles is a Priest, and McCaskill belongs to his parish.

Golf Store Follies

Steve shared this with me through Reader: McCain's golf equipment store accepts comments.

Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Pick Biden, because he's a dick!

There are quite a few Veep choices that Obama has that I approve of. Biden is one of them. And Ezra Klein neatly summarizes the case:
VEEPSTAKES: THE CASE FOR BIDEN: "EJ Dionne's column arguing that Joe Biden should be considered for Obama's VP slot makes a lot of sense. Biden is, arguably, the most effective voice Democrats have on foreign policy. And here's why: Joe Biden is an incredibly arrogant jerk. And that's exactly what Democrats need."

BEER

I think the fair way to read this is as a Freudian slip produced by boredom, not animosity. McCain hates giving speeches, and would really rather just be having a beer.

And I don't blame the guy. If I were running his campaign, I'd want to be drunk 24/7 too.

Obama Fundraising?

AFAIK, Obama hasn't been on the fundraising circuit for months. But now that the nomination is his, he's hitting up Clinton's big money people all over the country:
STLtoday - Obama urges unity at STL event: "Besides congeniality, the event also provided Obama with more campaign cash. Local organizers predicted that close to $1 million was raised from supporters who contributed $500 to $2,300 apiece."

Meanwhile, all John McCain does is fundraise, and I don't think he's having many million dollar days. If things stay the way they are, Obama could out raise McCain by an order of magnitude difference.

All fifty

Hmmm
Obama's 50-state strategy: It's official, his campaign will be everywhere - On Politics - USATODAY.com: "Democrat Barack Obama's deputy campaign manager, Steve Hildebrand, just announced in an e-mail to supporters that the campaign will compete all over the country this fall.

'Today, I am proud to announce that our presidential campaign will be the first in a generation to deploy and maintain staff in every single state,' Hildebrand said in the letter."

The guy that runs the blog should probably tell the guy who writes political articles for the AP. Readers could get confused.

Monday, June 09, 2008

Sexism and Republicans

As I'm reading through these NYTimes retrospectives, I see that both Jane Swift and Heather Wilson agree with Christie Whitman that Clinton lost because of sexism.

Both Jane Swift and Heather Wilson, like Christie Whitman, are female Republican politicians, currently not serving in office.

Two reasons the times couldn't get any Democratic women to write this crap:

1. Democrats want Barack Obama to win. Crying sexism over Hillary might help McCain. Some "anonymous GOP strategists" have even argued that McCain should put a woman on the ticket to attract their votes. I wonder if Christie Whitman, Jane Swift, or Heather Wilson know any prominent female Republican politicians currently not serving in office.

2. It's not true. The reason we don't have more female elected officials is because the perception of sexism discourages women from running. Once they decide to run, women who run as Democrats have the same chances as men as winning elections (anyone who wouldn't vote for a woman is already voting Republican anyway). In fact, women actually have an advantage in Democratic primaries, since most Democrats are women. After the Clinton/Obama race, I'd be surprised if the Democratic Party nominates another boring white guy any time soon.

Trivialities

It's an old story. Somebody asks a losing candidate how he lost. The response: the other guy got more votes!

If you're a well-respected political journalist and the New York Times asks you to dissect the failings of the Clinton campaign, your best bet is to offer up something trivially true that won't upset any of your sources or your readers, but might strike someone as interesting, which is why Mark Halperin can get away with explaining that Hillary lost because she lost the black vote.

Well, umm, duh.

Ana Marie Cox thinks that sometimes media coverage is stupid. Thanks, Ana.

Bob Kerrey kinda sorta thinks that she lost because Obama was a better candidate. But in order to take the edge off, he elevates Obama into the Best. Candidate. Ever. Because, you see, it's in Bob Kerrey's interest to avoid the perception that he picked a shitty candidate out of crass political opportunism and calculated poorly.

Mark Penn and the Epic Fail

Nothing illustrates the folly of all the Clinton Campaign post-mortem's more than Mark Penn's The Problem Wasn't The Message — It Was The Money.

It's not that Penn is wrong*, it's that he's not even bothering to try and answer the question. Penn has two conflicting interests here: the interest he has in being taken seriously as a political commenter, and the interest he has in getting paid for message-crafting in future campaigns. But the degree to which he is taken seriously in the future is almost completely dependent on whether or not he works for campaigns in the future, and not at all on whether or not he gives a good answer to this question. So Mark Penn has zero incentive to inform the public here, and every incentive to shift blame away from himself (as most of the commentariat currently places the lion's share of the blame for Clinton's campaign on him).

Similarly, Christie Whitman has zero incentive to accurately assess the level of sexism Clinton faced, but every incentive to complain about the difficulties for female politicians, which, as I point out, does female Republican politicians a lot more good than Democrats. Whitman, of course, is a female Republican politician.

*For an analysis of the substance of Penn's piece, lookie here.

Racism v. Sexism

Exit polls from the Democratic Primary Race:

Georgia:
In deciding your vote for president today, was the race of the candidate:
Category% TotalClintonEdwardsObama
Important2124372
Not important7834165

In deciding your vote for president today, was the gender of the candidate:
Category% TotalClintonEdwardsObama
Important1842354
Not important8129169
Wisconsin:
In deciding your vote for president today, was the gender of the candidate:
Category% TotalClintonObamaUninstructed
Important156337-
Not important8438610

In deciding your vote for president today, was the race of the candidate:
Category% TotalClintonObamaUninstructed
Important134650-
Not important8640590
Ohio
In deciding your vote for president today, was the gender of the candidate:
Category% TotalClintonObama
Important176040
Not important825345

In deciding your vote for president today, was the race of the candidate:
Category% TotalClintonObama
Important205939
Not important795345

Kentucky
In deciding your vote for president today, was the gender of the candidate:
Category% TotalClintonObamaUnc.
Important1679191
Not important8263333

In deciding your vote for president today, was the race of the candidate:
Category% TotalClintonObamaUnc.
Important2181162
Not important7861353

Georgia, Southern and half Black; Wisconsin, Northern and all White; Ohio, mixed and mixed; Kentucky, Southern, and all White.

In Georgia, and in other Southern states with a high concentration of African-American voters, Barack Obama's race helped him. In Wisconsin, a state full of Northern whites, it also helped him, albeit slightly. In Ohio, voters who said they prefered Clinton because of race provided half of her margin of victory. In Kentucky, full of white Southerners and not much else, Clinton crushed Obama, with over 15% of voters admitting that his race was an important factor.

By contrast, aside from a slight deficit in heavy African-American areas, Clinton's gender was an overall aide to her.

This just reflects a truth that's been obscured during the campaign — despite the fact that the media sometimes engaged in easy misogyny, the make-up of the Democratic Electorate (women outnumbered men in every contest) made Clinton's gender a major asset, not an obstacle to be overcome.

Sorry, Christie, but you're just wrong.

To be fair to Whitman, she's a Republican, and women who want to run as Republicans do face hurdles because of their gender. But them's the breaks when you belong to the asshole party.

Hillary Dead-Enders

The last people to leave the party are always the craziest. But as far as these things go, Hillary's hold-outs won't even be as effective as Ron Paul's renegade brigades.

And we can all be assured, that if their positions were reversed, and Hillary had somehow managed to win the nomination, Obama's base would have been much, much, much crazier.

Huckaveep?

This is worth reading: Huck Yeah. Ross Douthat argues for Huckabee's place on McCain's ticket as a way to start the inevitable post-election GOP infighting before the GOP actually loses this fall.

It's been pretty obvious for a while now (at least since 2004) that the future of the GOP is as some sort of "Christian Democrat" party. They'll need to move left in order to make up for the declining demographics of their constituency, and the party's southern base will force the move on economic issues, rather than foreign policy or social issues.

Or to put it another way, while Mike Huckabee is too flawed a candidate to ever become President, some form of Huckabeeism will lead the GOP out of the post-Bush wilderness.

McCain and evangelicals

This is correct:
The Washington Monthly: "In a nutshell, this is McCain's problem, and I don't see any way out of the box for him. His entire persona is based on being a moderate, reasonable guy, and if he keeps that up he loses a big chunk of the evangelical vote. But if he tries to move right and pick up the evangelicals, the independents will desert him in droves and vote for Obama. He just has no way of putting together a winning coalition."
But it's not the whole story. By my estimation, John McCain is boxed in on at least three levels: evangelicals, Hispanics, and lobbyists. Social moderates v. Evangelicals, as Keven explains; Hispanics v. GOP Xenophobes (or Southwest v. Southeast), and his Reformist allies v. Republican financiers. He's fucked in every way imaginable.

The only GOP group that McCain doesn't have some sort of problem with is the Neocons, and there aren't many of them outside of D.C. think tanks.

The race in six words

Johann Hari: it's hip vs hip operation, folks

Confusion

By ADAM NAGOURNEY and JEFF ZELENY, NYT:
A Republican strategist said that, according to party monitoring services, Mr. Obama’s campaign had inquired about advertising rates in 25 states, including traditionally Republican states like Georgia, Mississippi and North Carolina. That would constitute a very large purchase. President Bush, whose 2004 campaign had the most expensive advertising drive in presidential history, usually ran commercials in a maximum of 17 states.

By Charles Babington, AP:

From now on, the great majority of Americans can be excused if they barely realize a presidential election is under way. They will see virtually no TV ads, visits by candidates or local news coverage.

That's because this campaign, like the last two, will focus on about 15 competitive states. Both parties see the other states as reliably in their camps and not needing attention, or totally out of reach and not worth the effort and expense of trying to win them. In either case, these states will largely be ignored.


So, who's lying to whom, about what, and why? Cui bono? Considering that Obama's campaign is in the habit of bragging about its 50-state strategy, it appears that both of these stories rely upon Republicans as sources. It could be that they're trying to minimize what Obama's going to do. But that doesn't make any sense, after all, people are going to notice a nationwide ad blitz.

Most likely: Republican operatives, and the media scum they inform, have no fucking clue what's coming next.

And we can be reasonably sure that Mr. Charles Babington is an idiot.

Ignored Media Narratives

Several things things that will be crucial to the outcome of the 2008 election are just being ignored by the media. I will attempt to explain these in greater length:

1. The real reasons Hillary Clinton lost.

2. The nationalization of the Democratic and Republican parties.

4. The shift towards a "Responsible Parties" model of government.

5. The Hispanic vote.

6. Explaining and understanding the "Eight year itch".

7. Deterministic models predict the election months in advance — finding the holy grail of political science.