I'm kind of confused by why Obama's lead in the polls continues to grow. The race ought to be constricting as we close, rather than widening. Hell, in some polls I've even seen McCain losing ground.
Rather than any silly explanations that people might have (laying the credit at Colin Powell's feet, for example), let me suggest it's just the likely voter model changing. I've sort of suspected that pollsters have been dramatically understating how many of Obama's voters are actually going to vote. Now that early voting is happening the flaws in most polling models are beginning to show, as people they have as "not likely" have, in fact, already voted. As pollsters are forced to include the already voted in their polls, the demographics of the electorate change, and McCain loses a few points.
Friday, October 24, 2008
Election Night Questions #3
What happens in Texas?
Texas is a majority minority state (i.e. no demographic group has over 50% of the population of the state), but in the past a clear majority of the state's voters (66% in 2004) have been white, and they vote very Republican.
Most people assume that Texas is safe for McCain and that Sen. John Cornyn will win re-election, because the state has been so Republican in the past. I'm not sure, particularly because the Hispanic vote has shifted so dramatically towards the Democrats in the past four years (Bush tied Kerry amongst Hispanics in Texas).
I'm virtually alone in this, but I think the Road to 60 goes through Noriega.
And then, of course, there's also the matter of the state's electoral votes. While Texas isn't a swing state, I think it's the next red state after Indiana to go blue.
Texas is a majority minority state (i.e. no demographic group has over 50% of the population of the state), but in the past a clear majority of the state's voters (66% in 2004) have been white, and they vote very Republican.
Most people assume that Texas is safe for McCain and that Sen. John Cornyn will win re-election, because the state has been so Republican in the past. I'm not sure, particularly because the Hispanic vote has shifted so dramatically towards the Democrats in the past four years (Bush tied Kerry amongst Hispanics in Texas).
I'm virtually alone in this, but I think the Road to 60 goes through Noriega.
And then, of course, there's also the matter of the state's electoral votes. While Texas isn't a swing state, I think it's the next red state after Indiana to go blue.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Casting Call
Seeing this made me realize that Bill Murray would play a perfect John McCain in the inevitable 2008 election movie.
Obama and Will Smith already have an understanding between themselves. I don't think anybody can argue with Kevin Spacey as Mike Huckabee or Tina Fey as Sarah Palin. And Samuel L. Jackson could lend the necessary GOD DAMN AMERICA gravitas to Rev. Jeremiah Wright.
I have a hard time thinking of who to cast for Bill and Hillary, since John Travolta and Emma Thompson are stuck in my head from Primary Colors, maybe someone else has a better idea.
So, in the spirit of W., who do you guys think should play...
Bill and Hillary Clinton?
Mitt Romney?
John Edwards?
David Axelrod?
David Plouffe?
Howard "Sweater" Wolfson?
Tucker Barnes?
...feel free to add your own.
Obama and Will Smith already have an understanding between themselves. I don't think anybody can argue with Kevin Spacey as Mike Huckabee or Tina Fey as Sarah Palin. And Samuel L. Jackson could lend the necessary GOD DAMN AMERICA gravitas to Rev. Jeremiah Wright.
I have a hard time thinking of who to cast for Bill and Hillary, since John Travolta and Emma Thompson are stuck in my head from Primary Colors, maybe someone else has a better idea.
So, in the spirit of W., who do you guys think should play...
Bill and Hillary Clinton?
Mitt Romney?
John Edwards?
David Axelrod?
David Plouffe?
Howard "Sweater" Wolfson?
Tucker Barnes?
...feel free to add your own.
Election Day Questions #2
Will McCain break 30% in Illinois?
Current polling has it in the low 30s. Will the race a foregone conclusion, I can certainly see many McCain voters just staying home. On the other hand, Obama's political base in Chicago is certain to get out to vote for the hometown kid. So Obama might actually be able to double McCain's vote total in the Land of Lincoln.
You know, like he did with Keyes.
Current polling has it in the low 30s. Will the race a foregone conclusion, I can certainly see many McCain voters just staying home. On the other hand, Obama's political base in Chicago is certain to get out to vote for the hometown kid. So Obama might actually be able to double McCain's vote total in the Land of Lincoln.
You know, like he did with Keyes.
Election Day Questions
TWELVE DAYS TO GO!
With the election coming up in less than two weeks, I have some questions that WILL BE ANSWERED.
Let's face it: Barack Obama is going to win the election (even the RNC thinks so), and he's going to win it easily. So what should you be looking for on election night, in order to keep things interesting?
Question #1:
Will Chris Shays survive?
The last liberal New England Republican, Chris Shays, of Connecticut's fourth district, barely survived the 2006 purge that took out the rest of the Republicans in New England. He faces an even stronger challenger this year.
But he's generally liked and respected in his district, and without the argument that the leadership of the House hangs in the balance, he may be able to survive.
Shays and Himes are currently tied.
With the election coming up in less than two weeks, I have some questions that WILL BE ANSWERED.
Let's face it: Barack Obama is going to win the election (even the RNC thinks so), and he's going to win it easily. So what should you be looking for on election night, in order to keep things interesting?
Question #1:
Will Chris Shays survive?
The last liberal New England Republican, Chris Shays, of Connecticut's fourth district, barely survived the 2006 purge that took out the rest of the Republicans in New England. He faces an even stronger challenger this year.
But he's generally liked and respected in his district, and without the argument that the leadership of the House hangs in the balance, he may be able to survive.
Shays and Himes are currently tied.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
The Picture
Barack Obama's Grandparents.
Let me join the ranks of those who think Barack Obama looks like a black version of Stanley Dunham.
Let me join the ranks of those who think Barack Obama looks like a black version of Stanley Dunham.
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