GREAT QUOTES IN POLITICAL HISTORY: Southern Governor Edition

"The only way I can lose this election is if I'm caught in bed with either a dead girl or a live boy"

— Edwin Edwards, running for a third term as Louisiana's Governor in 1983; he won.

Russert

I know some pretty awful people. First, moments after Tim Russert's death, my father sends me an e-mail saying "Well, this proves Hillary definitely has a 'hit-list'".

And then my friend Steve sends me this screen shot from MSN.

All I can say is, election coverage is going to be a lot better this year.

GREAT QUOTES IN POLITICAL HISTORY: Revolutionary Edition

Let them call me rebel and welcome, I feel no concern from it; but I should suffer the misery of devils, were I to make a whore of my soul by swearing allegiance to one whose character is that of a sottish, stupid, stubborn, worthless, brutish man. I conceive likewise a horrid idea in receiving mercy from a being, who at the last day shall be shrieking to the rocks and mountains to cover him, and fleeing with terror from the orphan, the widow, and the slain of America.

— Thomas Paine,The Crisis , 1776; now that is coursening the discourse.

I was right

Wherein, Josh Marshall admits that everything I said about the long primary helping Obama was true.

Biggest Upset in History?

There's a question floating around the internets about whether or not Obama's victory over Clinton is the biggest political upset in American history. Commentators who say that it is not often point to 1948's Dewey Defeats Truman. I'm not sure how one can possibly judge "bigger" or "smaller" upsets on such a timescale (after all, how accurate are our perceptions of historical contests?), but I would draw your attention to the Democratic Convention of 1896, when William Jennings Bryan stole the nomination from incumbent President Grover Cleveland.

Why Hillary Lost

None of the Clinton Campaign Postmortems in the media have mentioned the two crucial reasons Hillary Clinton lost the Democratic nomination. Sure, they should have paid attention to the caucuses. And ignoring everything after February 5th was a mistake. I probably wouldn't have relied so much on a corporate shark like Mark Penn. Sexism, while not a problem at the voting booth, may have tainted media coverage. Bill might have chosen his words more carefully a couple of times. She should have focused on Obama in the beginning instead of Edwards. She should have run for something, as opposed to just a Clinton Restoration. Any of the reasons that people have mentioned might have influenced the election in minor ways, and she would have fared far worse without her enormous starting advantages. But there were two crucial reasons she lost, the first has been talked about on blogs but hardly anywhere else, and the second is barely mentioned at all (except, for perhaps, a read-between-the-lines interpretation of Kerrey's op-ed).

1. SHE VOTED FOR THE GODDAMN WAR.

Not only did she vote for the war, but she supported the war in the most transparently political ways possible. And then, during the course of the primary, she repeatedly lied about that vote. And then she went and voted for Kyl-Lieberman, which many activists interpreted as a vote to go to war with Iran (it wasn't, but it was needless saber-rattling that showed she'd had no conversion on topics of war and peace). A better candidate could have finessed the issue better, like John Edwards did with his public mea culpa (I Was Wrong) after the 2004 election. Which leads us to...

2. SHE WAS A BAD CANDIDATE.

Despite Clinton's ridiculous "experience" argument, Hillary was actually the least qualified person seeking the Democratic nomination this year, with a mere 8 years in government (Obama, by contrast, won his first election in 1996). She'd never run a race against a real opponent, and she'd never lost a race.* The primary field for the 2000 Senate race was cleared for her, she beat a token right-wing congressman, and didn't even have an opponent for re-election in 2006.

An early clue to her vulnerability is the election results in 2000. Despite the fact that Gore didn't even bother to campaign in New York, she ran 5 points lower than him. Think about that. Of people voting in New York that year, with Hillary campaigning non-stop, she scored 5 points less than "Generic Democrat". And so, despite the fact that she started out with a huge lead in money, and a huge lead in the polls, she just wasn't a good enough campaigner to pull off as close to a sure thing as there is in politics.

And if people have an emotional need to blame the campaign instead of the candidate, well, I'm sorry, but The Cossacks Work for the Czar. Clinton's campaign wasn't as good as Obama's, or BushCo's 2000 and 2004 efforts, but it was pretty good (it was basically an upgraded version of Clinton 1996); she certainly had a better campaign than any of the Republicans this year. And the litany of mistakes, poor judgment, bad advice taken, and personnel infighting can all be traced back to a bad management style at the top.


*This is an often-ignored fact. People who've never lost aren't prepared for and don't know how to react to a loss. This was a bigger problem for Dean in 2004 (after Iowa) than it was for Clinton, but it was still a problem for her.

Generational Partisan ID

Nice charts: Generation Dem

I predict that years from now, pundits will talk about "The Obama Generation" in conjunction with the Millennials, and discuss how he brought them into the Democratic fold. This will be hogwash. We were already trending heavily Democratic, and Obama will just be the first Democratic President to capitalize on this. Obama didn't find us, in a very real sense, we chose him.

(Also note that while young whites are trending more Democratic than in the past, a healthy chunk of this trend can be explained by the fact that the Millennials are also the least white generation in American history.)

GREAT QUOTES IN POLITICAL HISTORY: Dean Edition

I want my country back!

I don't want to listen to fundamentalist preachers anymore!

— Howard Dean, March 16, 2003; presumably courting the crucial white evangelical vote.

Programming Note

Light posting today, as I worked on a new feature for the blog. Now, every day at midnight, a political quote, chosen by ME for YOU will pop up on the blog.

PI: New Content Every Day, Even When I'm Hungover

"Natural Born Citizen"

Apparently, the stupid required Kos to get a copy of Obama's birth certificate. But now that the stupids brought it up, can we spend a news cycle or two discussing the fact that McCain wasn't born on U.S. soil?

"Baby Mama"

Hey, look: Racism!

The Polls are behaving as they should.

That's a nice trendline beginning to emerge there: Pollster.com.

Once Obama's number tops 50%, the contest is basically over. It is at this point that the right-wing realizes that McCain is toast. And then the knives come out.

If you are any sort of conservative, it is vitally important that McCain lose because he lost your support. That will give you a leg up on the post-election GOP intra-party fighting. The only GOP group with any allegiance to McCain are the NeoCons, and those treacherous motherfuckers will probably dump him too.

Schlock

Elections during the 19th century tended to be very active affairs — without televised sports, elections were the national pastime. Modern pundits who demand "seriousness" from candidates and campaigns are boring jackasses, people who relish the silliness, by contrast, are traditionalists.

It is with this preamble that I introduce you to Jones Soda Co's Yes We Can Cola.

Obama's bad idea

Obama's advocacy of a Windfall Profits Tax, while not quite as stupid as a "Gas Tax Holiday", is pretty dumb. In fact, it probably ranks as his worst idea this year. It really is just a mildly inefficient way to mandate that oil companies obscure their true profits and decrease domestic production.

When conservative capitalist ideologues argue that any increase in the marginal tax rate for wealthy individuals will result in those individuals rationally decreasing their economic output, they're full of shit. People don't work that way. Corporations, being the soulless golems that they are, do.

For similar reasons, we should probably get rid of the corporate income tax and replace it with higher taxes on individuals and capital gains.

McCaskill?

Cross her off the list:

Obama hangs out in StL without me: "While lauding her as 'such a terrific advocate on my behalf,' Obama sought to tamp down any speculation that McCaskill — a first-term senator like himself — might be chosen as his running mate or for a possible Cabinet post if he's elected.

'My sense is that Claire really enjoys being the senator of Missouri. We haven't had any discussion about other roles,' Obama said."

That seems pretty definitive to me. If he were seriously considering her, he would have at least said "maybe" when in her home town.

Fun Fact: One of my many right-wing uncles is a Priest, and McCaskill belongs to his parish.