McCain and evangelicals

This is correct:

The Washington Monthly: "In a nutshell, this is McCain's problem, and I don't see any way out of the box for him. His entire persona is based on being a moderate, reasonable guy, and if he keeps that up he loses a big chunk of the evangelical vote. But if he tries to move right and pick up the evangelicals, the independents will desert him in droves and vote for Obama. He just has no way of putting together a winning coalition."

But it's not the whole story. By my estimation, John McCain is boxed in on at least three levels: evangelicals, Hispanics, and lobbyists. Social moderates v. Evangelicals, as Keven explains; Hispanics v. GOP Xenophobes (or Southwest v. Southeast), and his Reformist allies v. Republican financiers. He's fucked in every way imaginable.

The only GOP group that McCain doesn't have some sort of problem with is the Neocons, and there aren't many of them outside of D.C. think tanks.