Who are Hillary's voters?

As near as I can tell, Hillary drew support from four main groups of voters, understanding who they are and why they supported her will be key to Obama unifying the party and winning a landslide victory over McCain in the fall. Contrary to the current wailing, I think this task will be relatively easy for Obama, even more so now that Hillary's going to concede by the end of the week. The four branches of Hillary's support:

Generic Democrat

For those of us obsessively following the campaign, the mindset of "Generic Democrat" voters is very difficult to understand. They're Democrats who don't really follow politics, but they like to vote. They tend to vote for the frontrunner or the familiar face — why take a chance with somebody new? I like being a democrat, and the people we've got now. In 1984 these people kept Mondale from losing to Hart, they crushed Bill Bradley in 2000, and are responsible for Kerry's huge margins after he won Iowa and New Hampshire in 2004. Hillary Clinton would have won the nomination on the strength of these voters alone, if she hadn't voted for the war. That let Obama win Iowa, and peel away enough of these voters to stall her movement. In Wisconsin and Virginia these voters went for Obama, as it appeared he was cruising to the nomination. She managed to win them back in some of the later primaries, but not by enough. Obama has these votes in the bag for November. The sharp uptick in recent polls showing that Democrats prefer Obama to Clinton decisively comes from defections among this group.

Clintonites

Clinton has a lot of fans in the Democratic party. Bill Clinton, that is. There was a non-trivial subset of Democrats this year who thought they were voting for Bill's third term. For whatever reason (the 90s economy, Clinton's vanquishing of Bush in 1992, still pissed about impeachment, etc.) these people desperately wanted a Clinton Restoration, and much like Hillary, they're pissed she didn't get it. Obama should have no trouble getting most of these voters by himself, and after the Clintons inevitably endorse and work for him, he'll get the rest.

Older Democratic Women

Whoo, boy, was Gloria Steinem pissed about young feminists supporting Obama. The meme "Vote your mama, not Obama" says it all. The Whitehouse project was started years ago, with the not-so-subtle goal of election Hillary to the Presidency. Many older (the younger cohort supported Obama) Democratic (Republican women hate Hillary) women viewed her as their best, and maybe only, shot for a generation. I happen to think that this is massively incorrect, and that the next competitive Democratic primary race will probably feature several highly qualified women, but that's beside the point. Hillary's women are pissed now, and unlike the Clintonites, her endorsement probably won't mean dick. Most of them will come back to Obama, however, because they are all Democrats, and a few months spent examining McSurge's record and platform (100% pro-life voting record, for one) should do the trick.

Of course, Obama could make life a lot easier for both him and them by putting a gal on the ticket, and there are several good choices available.

Anti-Obama voters

Now here's the tough nut to crack. There were a lot more Anybody-but-Hillary voters in this season than Anti-Obama voters. While misogynism played a minor role in the Anti-Hillary contingent, the biggest reasons I heard were Anti-War (my reason) and Anti-Dynasty (humorously offered by people who've spent years idolizing Ted Kennedy).

For Obama, on the other hand, race was the biggest factor. In most of the late primaries she won (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Indiana), her margin of victory was smaller than the number of white voters who told pollsters that race was a factor in their decision. And that's just the ones that admitted they were a little racist to a stranger.

In addition to the racists, there were Republican crossovers that wouldn't vote for either in the general who voted for Clinton in order to hurt Obama, or because she was their genuine preference considering the two. Exit polling shows that Obama won Republican crossovers before McCain clinched the nomination, and lost them afterwards. Needless to say, this is a vote that neither of them would've gotten in November.

These voters who voted for Clinton over Obama are probably lost to him. Luckily, they're nearly all concentrated in the South, and the Democratic wave this year will offset any losses that Obama might have in the Kerry states. The one trouble spot is Florida, the oldest state in the union (full of what my brother calls "the Greatest Racist Generation"), where Obama will probably not be competitive.

One more potential problem

While Obama garnered almost complete black support during the primaries, he lost the Hispanic vote to Clinton. I was worried about this, since if our margins amongst Hispanics look like 2006, we'll crush McCain, but if he's able to get Bush 2004 levels of support, he might be able to squeek through.

So what kind of voters are Hispanics? More precisely, are they Generic Dems who supported Clinton early on because she was the Democratic Brand or Anti-Obama voters, projecting typical inner city black/brown division onto the national stage? If Hispanics are racist against Blacks, that's a big problem for us, because taking Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, and Colorado requires strong Hispanic support.

We can worry no longer though, as recent polls show that Obama would win a re-vote in California. The Republican party's 2006 attempt to brand Hispanics as Untermenschen has aligned a solid majority of them with brand Democrat, and as soon as Obama becomes fixed in popular consciousness as the leader of the party, he'll lock up the Hispanic vote.