True Belief

In a continuation of my thoughts on the psychology of campaigns: I don't think that most politicians have some sort of "core beliefs" which are then explained or lied about on the campaign trail. Most politicians just want to be liked, and are willing to follow and believe in the interests of their constituency groups.

For example, George W. Bush originally ran for congress in 1978 as a pro-choice Republican. His father ran as a pro-choice candidate for President in 1980, and switched positions in order to be Reagan's running mate. Both of them followed a hard pro-life position once in power, because you dance with the ones who brought you. Does anyone doubt that Mittens would've been completely pro-life as President? People say that politicians words don't matter, but that's got it exactly wrong. Politicians words, when they're campaigning, are the most meaningful guide to their future performance.

One could view this rationally: a politician is likely to stick with the views that got them elected in the first place, as they're the most likely views to get them re-elected. Or one could view it as a natural human aversion to lying, after all, it's not lying to the people if you start to believe it yourself. Or maybe it's just a matter of politicians liking to feel loved by their supporters.

Romney's flips before running for President were obviously and transparently cynical. Most politicians are rarely such egregious dissemblers, and Romney was punished at the polls for it. Hillary Clinton, to coin a phrase, seems to have "found her own voice". Before she ran for President, she treated Bill's coalition of moderate Democrats as her own, even going so far as to run to the right on abortion.

Not anymore.

I don't know any feminists who considered Hillary any sort of icon before this year's campaign. My hunch is that a few years from now, it'll be hard to find any who don't.