Something nice about Bush

I rarely feel anything but venom for our 43st President, so when I feel otherwise, I should probably point it out.

The speech he gave the day after Obama won the election was heartfelt, generous, and reflective of his true feelings about race in our society.

Many people have commented that Obama wouldn't be possible without Bush's epic fail. And that's true. But he also wouldn't have been possible without Bush's consistent anti-racism. It's not merely the fact that Bush appointed two African-Americans to head his State department. It's also the fact that Bush was the first Republican since Nixon to win without appealing to racism.

(The ghost of my Father says: what about dis-enfranchising black voters? I say, of course they do that, Dad, but they did that by targeting people they knew wouldn't vote for them, not by legitimizing racism in the public sphere.)

American politics is fundamentally tribal. People don't vote based on issues. They vote based on party*. How many people over the age of 30 ever change parties? Bush used his platform as the leader of the Republican party to legitimize black leadership in the eyes of the half of the country that looked to him for cues.

When the history books are written, 50 to 100 years from now, Colin and Condi are going to be viewed like we view the protoceratops in light of the triceratops**. Bush's heart, in this one little thing, was in the right place.

P.S. Of course, the Republican party is now the "Barack the Magic Negro" party. But that wasn't Bush's party.

*What about independents? Easy: They're liars. 90% of American voters vote for the same party that they voted for in the last election. Partisan ID is decided in the first three general elections that a person votes in. But that's another story.

**I, of course, prefer Styracosaurus.

Oregon goes for the Dems!

Jeff Merkley will be the next U.S. Senator from Oregon, and he will be one of the most five liberal Senators we have.

He almost lost. We could have won this seat easily if Merkley had run a bit more of a conservative campaign. Or if the fucking Greens hadn't gotten 5% of the vote.

SRSLY

Advice to Election officials: Next time start counting the absentee ballots as they come in, asshats.

Apparently Georgia didn't count any of its early votes, you know, early.

And what the fuck is Oregon's problem, anyway?

The election was yesterday, I should know how many Senators we have now.

Election Night Questions #3

What happens in Texas?

Texas is a majority minority state (i.e. no demographic group has over 50% of the population of the state), but in the past a clear majority of the state's voters (66% in 2004) have been white, and they vote very Republican.

Most people assume that Texas is safe for McCain and that Sen. John Cornyn will win re-election, because the state has been so Republican in the past. I'm not sure, particularly because the Hispanic vote has shifted so dramatically towards the Democrats in the past four years (Bush tied Kerry amongst Hispanics in Texas).

I'm virtually alone in this, but I think the Road to 60 goes through Noriega.

And then, of course, there's also the matter of the state's electoral votes. While Texas isn't a swing state, I think it's the next red state after Indiana to go blue.

Election Day Questions #2

Will McCain break 30% in Illinois?

Current polling has it in the low 30s. Will the race a foregone conclusion, I can certainly see many McCain voters just staying home. On the other hand, Obama's political base in Chicago is certain to get out to vote for the hometown kid. So Obama might actually be able to double McCain's vote total in the Land of Lincoln.

You know, like he did with Keyes.

Election Day Questions

TWELVE DAYS TO GO!

With the election coming up in less than two weeks, I have some questions that WILL BE ANSWERED.

Let's face it: Barack Obama is going to win the election (even the RNC thinks so), and he's going to win it easily. So what should you be looking for on election night, in order to keep things interesting?

Question #1:

Will Chris Shays survive?

The last liberal New England Republican, Chris Shays, of Connecticut's fourth district, barely survived the 2006 purge that took out the rest of the Republicans in New England. He faces an even stronger challenger this year.

But he's generally liked and respected in his district, and without the argument that the leadership of the House hangs in the balance, he may be able to survive.

Shays and Himes are currently tied.