Sunday, November 09, 2008

2012

Last night there was some irresponsible speculation on 2012. I know, I know. I think I brought up the topic of the GOP Civil War, the best new show since Heroes, and that eventually led us down the sundry path to 2012.

All the usual names were tossed out: Palin, Jindal, Huckabee, Charlie "Three Dollar Bill" Crist, RomneyBot™, and The Newt, along with a few lesser known Governors. Interestingly, no Senators were mentioned, probably because the GOP's Senators are either too old, certifiably insane, or Pro-Choice. Other Matt brought up the possibility of a General, and despite this, I think President Obama is going to keep Petraeus employed until 2012, at least.

But now I'm thinking Obama has to run against a General. Black Lincoln needs his McClellan! But who will it be?
Posted by Matthew Carroll-Schmidt at 11:54 AM
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1 comment:

Charles Fulton said...

As it happens, Bush appointed Petraeus to CENTCOM this past summer.

I see Petraeus as more of a VP or national security honcho than an actual candidate. If anything, Petraeus is a less experienced candidate than Sarah Palin: whatever views he might have on domestic policy are unknown, he has never held elected office, and he has little obvious experience with mass politics.

It's early to draw lessons from the 2008 election, but I think McCain's run proved that you need someone who talks a good game on economics. McCain and Palin couldn't do that and it cost them. In this regard Huckabee is a much more obvious choice, with the added benefit that his social views, while as hard line as Palin's, are softened by a genuinely pleasant demeanor.

It became clear by late September that the war wasn't important to a majority of the electorate. If the situation remains stable there or our troops are withdrawn (or both) I don't see a window for a candidate on horseback.

My predictions: Huckabee + either Palin or Jindal in 2012, with Newt as a prominent advisor. I'd also watch for Collins and Snowe bolting the party if the social conservatives win the civil war.

November 9, 2008 at 3:08 PM

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