The Road to Sixty

I don't just think it's possible that we'll get to 60 seats in the Senate this November, I think it's likely. Here's why:

1. Sheer Numbers. In 2006, we needed 6 seats to take back the Senate, but over two-thirds of the seats up for election were Democrats. That meant we had to defend all of our seats and win over half of the remaining 11 races. We did, but just barely (and I say we in the real sense — I went canvassing for McCaskill). This time, however, we're only playing defense in 12 seats, while the Republicans are defending 23.

2. 2002 Echo. The Senate class elected in 2002 represents a different country — one traumatized by 9/11 and massively in favor of invading Iraq. A lot of these guys scraped by on Bush's popularity that year, so the fact that this will be a Democratic year will hit them particularly hard. Freshman Senators like John Sununu and Norm Coleman are screwed.

3. A Better Campaign. During the Summer and Fall of 2006 an intra-party fight roiled the Democrats, with congresscritters like Rahmbo and Chuck Schumer (chairs of the Congressional Campaign Committees) fought with DNC Chair Howard Dean and progressive activists about where and how to compete. Marginal races like John Tester in Montana and Jim Webb in Virginia were originally funded solely by activists, with the party chairs ignoring them. This year Barack Obama is running ads and campaigning in states like Mississippi, where he has no shot of winning, just to swing the Senate race there. The dirty secret about 2006 is that we could have had an even bigger majority if the D.c. types had had any balls. Now Chicago is running the show.

4. Generic Ballot. We won every seat in 2006 where the incumbent polled less than 50% over the summer (plus Webb over Allen and Whitehouse over Chaffee). That's because the public at large preferred the Democrats to the Republicans, and so if there was any fundamental weakness in an incumbent, the voting public eventually decided to throw the bum out. So, for instance, when we see John Cornyn easily beating Dem challenger Rick Noriega 48-35, that's really good news for Noriega (and why Barack Obama plans to organize 10,000 volunteers in the state for him). Ignore who's "winning" any poll with a challenger versus an incumbent — the only important thing at this point is whether or not the incumbent is above fifty.

I've surfed around and seen a lot of Senate Predictions, and they all seem very conservative to me (remember, in 2006 the most optimistic estimates were that we'd gain four seats). So here are my early predictions.

The Lone Worry
Poor Mary Landrieu (D-LA). Normally she'd be safe in a year like this (she barely squeaked by in 2002, but that was a heavy Republican year), unfortunately a huge chunk of her base got washed away by Katrina. I still think she'll pull it out, mainly because the GOP can't find anybody decent to run against her.

The Gimmes
Several Republicans saw the apocalypse coming and decided not to run for re-election. Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico are as good as ours already.

The Santorum
Jeanne Shaheen has been crushing Sununu for months in polls in New Hampshire. Much like Santorum's slow death spiral in 2006, this race will continue to be fought half-heartedly for the rest of the year.

The Chaffees
Lincoln Chaffee, from Rhode Island, was the only Republican to vote against the Iraq War. Unfortunately for him, he still had an R behind his name, and he lost in 2006. Susan Collins (ME) and Gordon Smith (OR) will have similar problems.

The Conrad Burns
The Tubes! The Tubes! Ted's toast. The mayor of Anchorage is going to make Mackensen's year.

That's SEVEN seats right there, and I'm reasonably confident that we'll win all of them. Add in to the mix these toss-ups:

Minnesota's Norm Coleman, who would certainly be a goner if Al Franken was a better candidate. I'm ok with the risk here, though, because Franken's a movement progressive and if he manages to pull it out he'll be one of the best Senators in the country.

Mississippi's Roger Wicker, an appointee to fill Trent Lott's position, has never won statewide office. Ronnie Musgrove, his Democratic challenger, is the former Governor.

Kentucky's Mitch McConnell — if there's one Senator who can't successfully separate themselves from the national party, it's the minority leader. And he's taking it on the chin.

North Carolina's Elizabeth Dole is a horrible campaigner, and as a 2002 Freshman, would certainly be doomed if her state wasn't so reliably Republican. Even so, North Carolina looks to be turning a bit purple.

Texas's John "Big John" Cornyn, as mentioned earlier, is being threatened by Hispanic War Vet, Rick Noriega. The Obama camp thinks he can win, and so do I.

We only need 3 of those 5 toss-ups to win, although in "wave" or "nationalized" elections, like this year, toss-ups tend to all fall one way or the other (in 2006 we won all of them). So that's why my betting prediction is for 62 Democrats next year (I count Sanders but not Lieberman).

And finally, in addition to all that, there are four more seats we have a chance to take, but probably won't: open seats in Idaho and Nebraska, and fairly strong challengers in Kansas and Oklahoma. But who knows? "Macaca" didn't happen until mid-August in 2006...