Whistle Past Dixie

Tom Schaller is the best contemporary working Political Scientist, and he says:

Why Obama Will Be the Latest Democrat to Lose in Dixie - Op-Ed - NYTimes.com: "THE interim between the primaries and the parties’ nominating conventions is, according to ancient writ, a fertile period for presidential campaigns to talk about how they plan to expand the political map in the fall. This year is no different. Barack Obama’s strategists are suggesting that the first African-American presidential nominee of a major political party can parlay increased turnout among black voters into a string of victories in the South.

Given that roughly half of all African-Americans live in the 11 former Confederate states, the idea seems intuitive enough. It’s also wrong."

I think the Obama campaign knows this — they've sort of explicitly acknowledged that their activities in Mississippi are aimed more at winning the state's Senate seat than its electoral votes.

And Georgia is winnable, but only if Bob Barr cockblocks McCain, which is seeming increasingly less likely.